Journal Articles

Building Better Models Prediction, Replication, and Machine Learning in the Social Sciences

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Analytic techniques developed for big data have much broader applications in the social sciences, outperforming standard regression models even—or rather especially—in smaller datasets. This article offers an overview of machine learning methods well-suited to social science problems, including decision trees, dimension reduction methods, nearest neighbor algorithms, support vector models, and penalized regression. In addition to novel algorithms, machine learning places great emphasis on model checking (through holdout samples and cross-validation) and model shrinkage (adjusting predictions toward the mean to reduce overfitting). This article advocates replacing typical regression analyses with two different sorts of models used in concert. A multi-algorithm ensemble approach should be used to determine the noise floor of a given dataset, while simpler methods such as penalized regression or decision trees should be used for theory building and hypothesis testing.

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Detail Information

Series Title

THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE

Call Number

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Publisher

Thousand Oaks : Sage Publications., 2015

Collation

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Language

English

ISBN/ISSN

978-1-5063-1463-1

Classification

NONE

Content Type

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Media Type

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Carrier Type

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Edition

Volume 659, May 2015, pages 48-62

Subject(s)

Machine learning
Predictive modeling
Data science
Penalized regression

Specific Detail Info

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Statement of Responsibility

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