Journal Articles

The contribution of process tracing to theory-based evaluations of complex aid instruments

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This article focuses on methodological challenges in evaluating complex program aid interventions like budget support. We show that recent innovations in process-tracing methodology can help solve the identified challenges and increase the strength of causal inference made when using case studies in demanding settings. For the specific task of evaluating the governance effectiveness of budget support interventions, we developed a more fine-grained causal mechanism for a sub-set of the comprehensive program theory of budget support. Moreover, based on the informal use of Bayesian logic, we have elaborated on how to increase the conclusiveness of empirical evidence for one part of the theorized causal mechanism. We argue that by establishing an explicit theorized mechanism prior to empirical research and by critically judging our evidence according to an informal Bayesian logic we can remedy some of the problems at hand in much case-study research and increase the inferential leverage in complex within-case evaluation studies.

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Detail Information

Series Title

Evaluation

Call Number

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Publisher

Thousand Oaks : Sage Publications., 2015

Collation

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Language

English

ISBN/ISSN

1356-3890

Classification

NONE

Content Type

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Media Type

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Carrier Type

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Edition

Volume 21, Number 4 October 2015, pages 429-447

Subject(s)

Methodology
Governance
Causal mechanisms
theory-based evaluation

Specific Detail Info

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Statement of Responsibility

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