Journal Articles

Revisiting the Divisive Primary Hypothesis: 2008 and the Clinton—Obama Nomination Battle

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The 2008 Democratic primary was marked by divisiveness as notable as its historic candidates. And while Barack Obama won the general election,political scientists would be remiss in studying divisive primary effects only when they are electorally decisive. Accordingly, we examine this largely forgotten storyline, searching for these effects throughout different segments of the electorate. Our analysis pursues evidence at multiple levels, focusing on the illustrative case of Franklin County in the bellwether state of Ohio. First, we use aggregate data and ecological inference to ascertain levels of abstention and defection among Clinton supporters, noting patterns in precincts. Next, we analyze original survey data drawn from individuals observed displaying yard signs, examining rates of participation within this engaged population. Overall, the evidence suggests that the primary produced lasting effects in terms of turnout, defection, and other participatory acts—effects that might have cost Obama the presidency under different circumstances.

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Detail Information

Series Title

American Politics Research

Call Number

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Publisher

: sage publisher., 2010

Collation

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Language

English

ISBN/ISSN

1532673x

Classification

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Content Type

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Media Type

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Carrier Type

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Edition

Vol. 38 no. 2, March 2010. pp 233-265

Subject(s)

Political participation
Barack Obama
Primary competition
United States Presidential election
Hillary Clinton

Specific Detail Info

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