Journal Articles

Do parties converge to the electoral mean in all political systems?

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Many formal models suggest that parties or candidates should locate at the electoral mean. Yet,
there is no consistent evidence of such convergence across political systems. Schofield’s (2007)
Valence Theorem proves that when valence differences across parties are large, there is non-
convergence to the mean. Convergence to the mean depends on the value of the convergence
coefficient, c. When c is high there is significant centrifugal tendency acting on the parties and
when c is low there is a significant centripetal tendency acting on the parties.
In this paper we apply the stochastic valence model of elections in various countries under
different political regimes and use the convergence coefficient of these elections to classify
political systems. Our results show that the convergence coefficient varies across elections in a
country, across countries using the same political system and across political regimes. For
countries using proportional representation, namely Israel, Turkey and Poland, the centrifugal
tendency is very high and parties move away from the mean. In the majoritarian polities of the
United States and the UK, parties are located at the mean, as the centrifugal tendency is very
low. In anocracies, the autocrat imposes limitations on how far from the origin the opposition parties can move but the equilibrium is fragile.

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Detail Information

Series Title

Journal of Theoretical Politics

Call Number

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Publisher

Thousand Oaks : Sage Publications., 2016

Collation

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Language

English

ISBN/ISSN

0951-6298

Classification

NONE

Content Type

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Media Type

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Carrier Type

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Edition

Volume 28, Issue 2, April 2016; pp. 288–330

Subject(s)

convergence
Valence
convergence coefficient
local nash equilibrium

Specific Detail Info

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Statement of Responsibility

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