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Image of French Election Theory: Why Sarkozy Lost

Journal Articles

French Election Theory: Why Sarkozy Lost

Nadeau, Richard - Personal Name; Lewis-Beck, M ichael S. - Personal Name;

We review theories of French elections, drawing on a recent general theory developed in our analysis of presidential elections (1988–2007). We offer an explanation for why President Sarkozy was not re-elected in 2012. Two key theoretical variables were involved: one long term—ideological identification—and one short term—economic evaluation. The effect of these variables changed greatly from 2007 to 2012, and together largely account for his loss of almost five percentage-points in second-round vote share. In 2007, he ran as an ‘outsider’ who galvanised the base of his traditional right party (the UMP), promising to solve the economic problems the country faced. In contrast, in 2012, he ran as an incumbent with a failed record. Thus, he experienced substantial defection from the Gaullist right, as well as more global dissatisfaction with his poor economic leadership, costing him his presidential re-election bid.


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Detail Information
Series Title
Parliamentary Affairs
Call Number
-
Publisher
Jakarta : Oxford University Press., 2013
Collation
-
Language
English
ISBN/ISSN
0031-2290
Classification
-
Content Type
-
Media Type
-
Carrier Type
-
Edition
Volume 66 Issue 1 January 2013 p. 52-68
Subject(s)
Elections
Specific Detail Info
-
Statement of Responsibility
-
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Kemitraan Library
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Established in 2003, the Library of Kemitraan was originally designed to record and collect all Kemitraan and grantees publications. However, today it broadly develops and serves more sectors to expand the collection to facilitate research activities, particularly since the inception of the Knowledge and Research Management within Kemitraan.

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