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Building Better Models Prediction, Replication, and Machine Learning in the …
Analytic techniques developed for big data have much broader applications in the social sciences, outperforming standard regression models even—or rather especially—in smaller datasets. This article offers an overview of machine learning methods well-suited to social science problems, including decision trees, dimension reduction methods, nearest neighbor algorithms, support vector models, and …
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- Volume 659, May 2015, pages 48-62
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-5063-1463-1
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- -
- Series Title
- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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On Building Better Mousetraps and Understanding the Human Condition Reflecti…
Over the past few years, we have seen the emergence of “big data”: disruptive technologies that have transformed commerce, science, and many aspects of society. Despite the tremendous enthusiasm for big data, there is no shortage of detractors. This article argues that many criticisms stem from a fundamental confusion over goals: whether the desired outcome of big data use is “better science” o…
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- Volume 659, May 2015, pages 33-47
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-5063-1463-1
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- -
- Series Title
- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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From Big Data to Knowledge in the Social Sciences
One of the challenges associated with high-volume, diverse datasets is whether synthesis of open data streams can translate into actionable knowledge. Recognizing that challenge and other issues related to these types of data, the National Institutes of Health developed the Big Data to Knowledge or BD2K initiative. The concept of translating “big data to knowledge” is important to the social an…
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- Volume 659, May 2015, pages 16-32
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-5063-1463-1
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- -
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- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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Does Partisanship Shape Attitudes toward Science and Public Policy? The Case …
Despite the apparent partisan divide over issues such as global warming and hydraulic fracturing, little is known about what shapes citizens’ willingness to accept scientific recommendations on political issues. We examine the extent to which Democrats, Republicans, and independents are likely to defer to scientific expertise in matters of policy. Our study draws on an October 2013 U.S. nationa…
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- Volume 658, March 2015, pages 18-35
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-5063-0773-2
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- Series Title
- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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Technology Optimism or Pessimism about Genomic Science Variation among Exper…
Like lay people, experts vary in their technology optimism or pessimism about scientific endeavors, for reasons that are poorly understood. We explore experts’ technology optimism through a focus on genomics; its novelty, life-and-death implications, complex technology, and broad but as yet unknown societal implications make it an excellent subject for studying views about new knowledge. We use…
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- Volume 658, March 2015, pages 236-252
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-5063-0773-2
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- Series Title
- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACANDEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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Geoengineering and Climate Change Polarization Testing a Two-Channel Model o…
The cultural cognition thesis posits that individuals rely extensively on cultural meanings in forming perceptions of risk. The logic of the cultural cognition thesis suggests that a two-channel science communication strategy, combining information content (“Channel 1”) with cultural meanings (“Channel 2”), could promote open-minded assessment of information across diverse communities. We test …
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- Volume 658, March 2015, pages 192-235
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-5063-0773-2
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- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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Citizens’, Scientists’, and Policy Advisors’ Beliefs about Global Warming
Numerous factors shape citizens’ beliefs about global warming, but there is very little research that compares the views of the public with key actors in the policymaking process. We analyze data from simultaneous and parallel surveys of (1) the U.S. public, (2) scientists who actively publish research on energy technologies in the United States, and (3) congressional policy advisors and find t…
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- Volume 658, March 2015, pages 271-295
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-5063-0773-2
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- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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Enablers of Doubt How Future Teachers Learn to Negotiate the Evolution Wars …
Evolution deniers do not need to establish their own scientific position but merely cast doubt on some aspect of evolution or obtain a small amount of legitimacy for creationism or intelligent design to sow sufficient doubt in the mainstream. This doubt is one of three pillars, along with demands for equal time and the incompatibility of science and religion, that Eugenie Scott has argued defin…
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- Volume 658, March 2015, pages 253-270
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-5063-0773-2
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- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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Selecting Our Own Science How Communication Contexts and Individual Traits S…
We use an experiment with a nationally representative sample of the U.S. population to examine how political partisans consume and process media reports about nanotechnology—a scientific issue that is unfamiliar to most Americans. We manipulate the extent to which participants receive ideological cues contextualizing a news article, and follow their subsequent information seeking about nanotech…
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- Volume 658, March 2015, pages 172-191
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-5063-0773-2
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- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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The Content and Effect of Politicized Health Controversies
Health issues are increasingly becoming politicized, but little is known about how politicization takes shape in the news and its effect on the public. We analyze the evolution of politicization in news coverage of two health controversies: the uproar over the 2009 mammography screening guidelines and the 2006–2007 debate over mandating the HPV vaccine as a requirement for middle school–aged gi…
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- Volume 658, March 2015, pages 155-171
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-5063-0773-2
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- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERIAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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Expertise in an Age of Polarization: Evaluating Scientists’ Political Aware…
During the George W. Bush administration, intense debate focused on the administration’s interference with the work of government scientists. In this study, analyzing a May/June 2009 survey of members of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), we evaluate the factors during this period that influenced scientists’ awareness of political interference and their media outrea…
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- Volume 658, March 2015, pages 121-135
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-5063-0773-2
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- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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The Influence of Specific Risk Perceptions on Public Policy Support An Exami…
A great deal of research has been dedicated to understanding the relationship of public preferences to public policy. Much of this literature, though, does not account for risk perception, an important characteristic that affects individuals’ preferences. In terms of policy, those who perceive high risk in association with a particular issue should be more likely to oppose policies that would i…
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- Volume 658, March 2015, pages 86-101
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-5063-0773-2
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- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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Red States, Blue States, and Brain States Issue Framing, Partisanship, and t…
Advances in neuroscience are beginning to shape law and public policy, giving rise to the field of “neurolaw.” The impact of neuroscientific evidence on how laws are written and interpreted in practice will depend in part on how neurolaw is understood by the public. Drawing on a nationally representative telephone survey experiment, this article presents the first evidence on public approval of…
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- Volume 658, March 2015, pages 86-101
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-5067-0773-2
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- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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Questionnaire Design Effects in Climate Change Surveys Implications for the …
Despite strong agreement among scientists, public opinion surveys reveal wide partisan disagreement on climate issues in the United States. We suggest that this divide may be exaggerated by questionnaire design variables. Following a brief literature review, we report on a national survey experiment involving U.S. Democrats and Republicans (n = 2,041) (fielded August 25–September 5, 2012) that …
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- Volume 658, March 2015, pages 67-85
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-5067-0773-2
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- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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The Partisan Brain How Dissonant Science Messages Lead Conservatives and Lib…
There has been deepening concern about political polarization in public attitudes toward the scientific community. The “intrinsic thesis” attributes this polarization to psychological deficiencies among conservatives as compared to liberals. The “contextual thesis” makes no such claims about inherent psychological differences between conservatives and liberals, but rather points to interacting …
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- Volume 658, March 2015, pages 36-66
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-5067-0773-2
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- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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Who Is Listening? When Scholars Think They Are Talking to Congress
The editors asked for my view on whether, in the current political climate, the recommendations in this volume of The ANNALS are likely to be heeded. The question that precedes this one is whether the volume’s contributors understand why policy-makers make use of science at all. “No” is the obvious answer, though I see this not as a failure particular to their effort but rather as a broader fai…
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- Volume 657, Januari 2015, pager 265-273
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-4833-9181-6
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- -
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- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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The Opportunities and Challenges of Using Administrative Data Linkages to Eva…
Since Alan Krueger’s christening of the Great Gatsby curve, there has been increased attention given to the relationship between inequality and intergenerational social mobility in the United States. Studying intergenerational mobility (IGM) requires longitudinal data across large spans of time as well as the ability to follow parents and children over multiple generations. Few longitudinal dat…
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- Volume 657, Januari 2015, pager 247-264
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-4833-9181-6
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- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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Potential Data Sources for a New Study of Social Mobility in the United States
In this article I define the main criteria that ought to be considered in evaluating the costs and benefits of various data resources that might be used for a new study of social and economic mobility in the United States. These criteria include population definition and coverage, sample size, topical coverage, temporal issues, spatial issues, sustainability, financial expense, and privacy and …
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- Volume 657, Januari 2015, pager 208-246
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-4833-9181-6
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- Series Title
- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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The Engagement Gap: Social Mobility and Extracurricular Participation among A…
Participation in extracurricular activities is associated with positive youth outcomes such as higher education attainment and greater future earnings. We present new analyses of four national longitudinal surveys of American high school students that reveal a sharp increase in the class gap in extracurricular involvement. Since the 1970s, upper-middle-class students have become increasingly ac…
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- Volume 657, Januari 2015, pager 194-207
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-4833-9181-6
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- -
- Series Title
- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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Using Occupation to Measure Intergenerational Mobility
Scholarly investigations of intergenerational mobility typically focus on either the occupations of fathers and sons or their incomes. Using an identical sample of fathers and sons, we examine how estimates of intergenerational mobility in income and occupational prestige are affected by (1) measurement that uses long time averages and (2) varying the point in the life cycle when outcomes are m…
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- Volume 657, Januari 2015, pager 174-193
- ISBN/ISSN
- 978-1-4833-9181-6
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- -
- Series Title
- THE ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
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