Simulating policy diffusion through learning: Reducing the risk of false posi…

This article uses agent-based computer simulation to investigate the dynamics of policy diffusion through learning. It compares these dynamics across state systems in which policy-makers possess different capabilities to learn about policy effectiveness: independent decision-makers focusing on own experiences vs. interdependent social learners relying heavily on experiences of others. The…

Political autonomy and independence: Theory and experimental evidence

We use a game-theoretical model and results from laboratory experiments to study the process by which subordinated regions of a country can obtain a more favorable political status. In our theoretical model a dominant and a dominated region first interact through a political process. This process involves two referenda, one at the level of the country as a whole and one at the level of …

Time constraints and the opportunity costs of oversight

In a principal–agent relationship, how should principals budget time for oversight when oversight activity is not instantaneous? We develop a formal model of resource allocation by a principal monitoring multiple agents, where the principal faces a dynamic budgeting problem. Our model reveals a tension between the value of holding resources in reserve to maintain the threat of an audit …

Strategic party heterogeneity

Political parties field heterogeneous candidates and send a variety of messages about their policy positions. Yet most voting models maintain that office-seeking parties should enforce intraparty homogeneity and cultivate clear party reputations. This article reconciles theory with reality by identifying a strategic rationale for parties to pursue heterogeneity. I develop a model in which…

Heresthetics and choice from tournaments

Moser et al. provide a formalization of heresthetics, the “art of political strategy”, in collective choice settings. In doing so they introduce the heresthetically stable set as the set of outcomes least susceptible to manipulation of issue dimension. In this note we correct a small error in the original paper, and close several open questions asked there in. We examine the heresthetical…

Scope and precedent: judicial rule-making under uncertainty

I develop a formal model of Supreme Court opinion-writing in an environment of uncertainty. In particular, the model captures how the Supreme Court will optimally design the specificity of its legal rules. The model focuses on the tradeoff between more precise rules which are controlling in a smaller subset of cases against less precise rules, which have wider applicability but yield le…

Social choice and popular control

In democracies citizens are supposed to have some control over the general direction of policy. According to a pretheoretical interpretation of this idea, the people have control if elections and other democratic institutions compel officials to do what the people want, or what the majority want. This interpretation of popular control fits uncomfortably with insights from social choice …

Do parties converge to the electoral mean in all political systems?

Many formal models suggest that parties or candidates should locate at the electoral mean. Yet, there is no consistent evidence of such convergence across political systems. Schofield’s (2007) Valence Theorem proves that when valence differences across parties are large, there is non- convergence to the mean. Convergence to the mean depends on the value of the convergence coefficient, c.…

An empirical stochastic model of Argentina’s Impossible Game (1955–1966)

Argentine politics from 1955 to 1966 was characterized by the conflict between the Peronists and the anti-Peronists. While each camp could veto the other’s project, neither could advance their own agenda. In his canonical interpretation, O’Donnell (Modernization and Bureaucratic- Authoritarianism. Berkeley, CA: Institute of International Studies, University of California, 1973) concluded…

Increasing rents and incumbency disadvantage

Recent empirical studies have found a incumbency disadvantage in many developing democracies, in marked contrast with the well-known incumbency advantage in the US and other developed democracies. We know considerably less about incumbency disadvantage than incumbency advantage. In a simple principal-agent framework, I explore the role of a prominent feature of developing democracies – …

Distributive politics, the electoral connection, and the antebellum US Congre…

We investigate the rise of federal military pensions in the antebellum US Congress to examine whether key aspects of the contemporary electoral connection were present in earlier historical eras. Overall, the political responses of members of Congress to pressures for military service pensions reveal that the quest for credit-claiming opportunities significantly shaped the adoption and ev…

Exploring ethical issues and conditions for institutionalizing evaluation i…

When addressing evaluation ethics, both the literature and existing ethics codes focus on evaluators’ conduct. This risks undermining the evaluator’s position vis-à-vis programme managers and evaluation commissioners, without addressing major ethical issues. This study indicates that the factors influencing ethical choices include institutional settings and organizational arrangements. …

A framework for improving the responsiveness of policy through development …

Development evaluation, which prioritizes poverty reduction, potentially can increase the responsiveness of policy to poor people. Power imbalances, however, mean that although development evaluation has the possibility to be an important contributor to poverty reduction efforts, the interests of the poor are often excluded from the process of evaluation. In this article a framework tha…

The role of new information and communication technologies in equity-focuse…

ICT is being rapidly introduced into development evaluation. Evaluators need to keep abreast of these important evolutions in the field in order to stay current and continue shaping the future of development work through their practice. ICT is helping to resolve some age-old issues that evaluators face, especially in terms of time, resources and data quality constraints. At the same tim…

Are social mechanisms usable and useful in evaluation research?

This article reflects on the potential contribution of a social mechanism approach to evaluation research, based on the empirical analysis of three evaluations of European policies. A methodological framework for carrying out evaluation based on this approach is put forward that help identify questions to be answered and steps in a working method to be followed. More specifically, the a…

Evaluation in management by objectives: A critical analysis of Sweden’s n…

This article investigates what can be achieved by one particular management by objectives system – i.e. the Swedish National Environmental Quality Objectives system and its evaluation function. A critical programme theory analysis is first developed to reconstruct the programme theory of the National Environmental Quality Objectives system. Next, the robustness of the programme theory i…

Evaluation units as knowledge brokers: Testing and calibrating an innovative …

Evaluation units, located within public institutions, are important actors responsible for the production and dissemination of evaluative knowledge in complex programming and institutional settings. The current evaluation literature does not adequately explain their role in fostering better evaluation use. The article offers an empirically tested framework for the analysis of the role o…

Using Contribution Analysis to evaluate small & medium enterprise support po…

This research illustrates a pragmatic approach to evaluating the small and medium sized enterprise policy support in small or intermediate N research situations. A public interest perspective is taken. The suggested approach is most appropriate in settings where, for a variety of reasons, a study is unable to meet the requirements of a true experimental design (e.g. random assignment, e…

Journal of Theoretical Politics, Volume 28, Number 3, July 2016

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0951-6298

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Journal of Theoretical Politics, Volume 28, Number 2, April 2016

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ISBN/ISSN

0951-6298

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